I am not a perma-bear, but I like to always keep an eye out for disparate facts that unite together to give me an idea of risk versus reward over the intermediate term. All of my trading is short-term and non-discretionary, but ultimately the bet sizing and exposure decision is judgement based. Several signs seem to suggest the possibility of another meltdown in 2010. As always you should wait for technical confirmation.
1) Citibank is now jacking up interest rates on certain credit card borrowers to nearly 30% whether they have a pristine credit record or not. No warning and no good reason—-desperation? http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/citigroups-hail-mary-pass-how-to-know.html
2) FASB is scheduled to lift suspensions on mark-to-market accounting starting November 15, 2009 which forces zombie banks to show what they are hiding.
3) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are effectively worthless and finally their charts show a breakdown: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=fnm&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p94154849511
4) Commerical Hedgers (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, the Fed) are out of the market while everyone else is “all-in” see DowInd